Markdown Intelligence
4 brands · Rp 840B · >65% markdown probability
Act within 7 days
3 brands · Rp 530B · 40–65% probability
Act within 21 days
8 brands · Rp 2.1T · 20–40% probability
30–60 day horizon
Risk Breakdown
Score Breakdown
Commercial Model: Owned Retail
MAP bears 100% markdown cost. No consignment offset.
Sell-Through Trajectory
Nike Free Run at Grand Indonesia has 83% markdown probability within 6 days. Current 38% sell-through vs. 61% historical norm at Day 28. Optimal: 20% markdown at Day 32 recovers Rp 327B vs. Rp 231B in a delayed −30% markdown at Day 42.
- 1.SpeedShop recorded 38% sell-through at Day 28 for this SKU-store — 24-month owned footwear baseline at MAPA for same calendar point: 61% median, 52% 25th percentile — this SKU is in the bottom 8%
- 2.Trajectory model projects Day 42 sell-through at 44–49% — below the 60% threshold needed for acceptable GMROII on owned-retail footwear
- 3.Price elasticity model (trained on 847 MAP markdown events FY2022–2025) recommends 18–22% markdown depth at Day 31–33 for maximum IDR recovery
- 4.Commercial model: Owned Retail — MAP bears 100% of markdown cost and unsold inventory value — no consignment offset applies
Recommended Action: 20% markdown
Rp 96B additional recovery by acting now.
This action will be logged and routed to the MAPA Active buying team for approval.
Top 10 SKU-store combinations represent Rp 1.8T in actionable recovery. Acting within 7 days on the 4 Critical-rated items preserves an estimated Rp 640B in full-price revenue vs. a reactive markdown 3 weeks later. MAPA footwear accounts for 71% of the Critical queue — concentrated in owned-retail model where MAP bears full markdown cost.